In 2000, Bush Won 19 States with Highest White Birthrates

by Steve Sailer

UPI, November 22, 2000


"Every boy and every girl that's born alive 
Is a little Liberal or else a little Conservative" 

From "Iolanthe," by Gilbert and Sullivan

Only 8 percent of George W. Bush's total vote came from minorities versus 30 percent for Al Gore. This racial gap between the Republicans and Democrats is likely to yawn even wider in future generations because of current birth rate trends. Whites in politically conservative states are having more children than whites in liberal states. Meanwhile, African Americans and especially Hispanics, both of whom voted heavily for Gore, have higher birthrates than whites. Since children vote like their parents to an often-surprising degree, this suggests that in future generations, whites will tend to be more Republican. Conversely, Democrats will tend to be increasingly nonwhite.

A UPI statistical analysis shows that for the 19 states with the most white babies per 1,000 white adults, every single state voted for Bush. Overall, states carried by Bush had white birthrates 16 percent higher than states carried by Gore.

For example, Bush crushed Gore among Utah whites 68 percent to 25 percent, according to the Voter News Service exit poll. (Nationally, Bush carried whites 54 percent to 42 percent.) This Mormon-dominated state is in a class by itself in terms of white fertility. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, 29 white babies were born in Utah in 1998 per 1,000 white adults. This was almost twice the national average of 15.5 white babies per 1,000 white adults.

Next came Idaho (another Mormon stronghold) and Alaska, each with 19 white newborns per 1,000 adults. Indiana and Kentucky followed at 18 white babies apiece. Bush won between 59 percent and 70 percent of the white vote in these states.

High Mormon birth rates means that members of the Church of Latter Day Saints will play an ever-larger role in the Republican Party. This could cause image problems for the GOP. That's because anti-Mormon prejudice is more respectable in modern America than other forms of religious discrimination, such as anti-Semitism or anti-Catholicism. According to a 1999 Gallup survey, only six percent of Americans said they wouldn't vote for a Jew for President. A mere four percent admitted they wouldn't consider a Catholic for the job. In contrast, 17 percent stated that they wouldn't vote for a Mormon. And while bias against potential Jewish and Catholic Presidential candidates has dropped sharply over the decades, the anti-Mormon share of the population was the same as in 1967.

In contrast to white Republicans' fertility, of the nine states with the lowest white birth rate, at least eight voted for Al Gore. (Disputed Florida was the ninth.) The least fertile whites were in Rhode Island, with only 12 babies per 1,000 whites. White Rhode Islanders gave Bush only 34 percent of their votes.

Even more worrisome for Democrats would be the low white birth rate in New York and California, the East Coast and West Coast pillars of the modern white liberal vote. New York whites gave 57 percent of their votes to either Gore or leftwing candidate Ralph Nader. In California, 51 percent of whites voted for Gore or Nader. The whites of these megastates ranked 46th and 47th least fecund among the 50 states. In both New York and California, white mothers gave birth to only 13 babies for every 1,000 white adults.

Jewish liberals, who comprise many of most influential members of the New York and California Democratic Party, are especially likely to dwindle in numbers. Jewish Americans are one of the most aged ethnic groups. Further, young Jews have one of the lowest fertility rates. On the other hand, Orthodox and especially ultra-Orthodox Jews have much larger families. Thus, the Orthodox will play a larger role in Jewish affairs in the future, if merely through sheer weight of numbers. Their loyalty to the Democratic Party is much less assured.

Overall, however, Democrats are hardly an endangered species. That's because the two largest minority groups, Hispanics and African Americans, have birthrates well above even the white Republican average.

Hispanics, who voted 62 percent to 35 percent for Al Gore, averaged 34 infants per 1,000 Hispanic adults. That's about double the white rate. (Hispanic population is also surging because of immigration. Yet, not all immigrants become citizens. Thus, many can't vote. All of their children born in this country, however, immediately become citizens.)

Hispanic fertility is particularly high in states where most Hispanics are first generation immigrants from Mexico. For instance, in North Carolina, where demand for immigrants to work in food packing plants is strong, there were a remarkable 67 Hispanic babies born for every 1,000 Hispanic adults. That was four times North Carolina's white rate. Hispanic babies now comprise 7% of all the babies born in North Carolina.

In three states with better-established Hispanic populations, California, Texas, and New Mexico, more Hispanic babies were born than white babies in 1998.

African American fecundity has been dropping for decades. Still, in 1998 there were 24 black newborns per 1,000 black adults, about one and a half times the white rate. With black loyalty to the Democrats demonstrated by their voting 90 percent to 9 percent for Gore, African Americans should make up an important and growing part of the Democratic Party for decades to come.

Steve Sailer ( is a columnist for and the film critic for The American Conservative.

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