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Steve Sailer

Live not by lies. - Solzhenitsyn

To see what is in front of one's nose needs a constant struggle. - Orwell

Knowledge is good. - Animal House

Articles on Politics

Who is Steve Sailer? I'm a reporter, movie critic for The American Conservative, VDARE.com columnist, and founder of the Human Biodiversity Institute, which runs the invitation-only Human Biodiversity discussion group for top scientists and public intellectuals.















Bush's Immigration Speech



So, if each one of the 6,000 National Guardsmen was on patrol an average of, say, 21 hours per week (which is 1/8th of the 168 hours in a week), that would provide one soldier per 2.6 miles of border.

The Pete Wilson Myth

American Conservative


No myth has become more entrenched in the media than that recent California political history demonstrates that cracking down on illegal immigration would be political suicide for Republicans.

The Duke Lacrosse Brouhaha and the Hunt for Tom Wolfe's 'Great White Defendant'



"Every assistant D.A. in the Bronx … shared Captain Ahab's mania for the Great White Defendant. For a start, it was not pleasant to go through life telling yourself, 'What I do for a living is, I pack blacks and Latins off to jail.'"

How to Rig an Immigration Poll



Also see Part 2 here.

Four myths about immigration and voting



The lack of accountability and integrity in the mainstream press is striking. A pundit, once established, can apparently propagate nonsense catastrophic to America for years without paying any career price for his incompetence or bad faith.

Undercover Economist Underperforms on Why Poor Countries Are Poor



The fundamental problem is that it doesn't really pay in Africa to be a good ruler.

"The Return of Patriarchy"



Post-modern cultures might well be eventually pushed aside by whichever groups of religious fundamentalists—Mormons, Orthodox Jews, Wahhabi Islamists—best succeed in motivating their followers to have lots of children.

On John Derbyshire's "Hesperophobia"



The genetic science is progressing so fast that we'll know soon enough—perhaps two decades to be rock solid certain. We know which way the scientific wind is blowing right now, but even if we ignore that, wouldn't the prudent action be to wait a couple of decades, to restrict immigration and refrain from utopian foreign adventures, until the science is in?

Cesar Chavez, Minuteman

American Conservative


Like today’s Minutemen, United Farm Worker staffers under the command of Chavez’s brother Manuel patrolled the Arizona-Mexico border to keep out illegal aliens. Unlike the well-behaved Minutemen, however, Chavez’s boys sometimes beat up intruders.

The Larger Lessons of the Danish Cartoon Crisis



Danes and Muslims don't agree on the basics of social organization and don't want to live under the same rules. That shouldn't be a severe problem. It's what separate countries are for. But due to mass immigration, it is in fact becoming a huge stumbling block.

Americans First

American Conservative


In devising immigration policy, the question should be: what’s best for the citizens we already have?

"It's the End of the World as We Know It"



What the DNA researchers are uncovering as they scrape away the blather of the Goulds and Diamonds is a world we already more or less know, the one we all live in every day. The human race has its flaws. But the truth about ourselves is not so horrible that we must be shielded from it by self-appointed sages who get rich fabricating falsehoods.

American Gunfight



On November 1, 1950, two immigrant gunmen tried to  assassinate President Harry Truman in the name of Puerto Rican independence. They might well have succeeded if not for one of the great acts of individual heroism of the last century.

Playing the Holocaust Card



The odds of major anti-Semitic attacks in this country unfortunately rise rapidly farther out into the future, as immigration brings in more anti-Semites—which is one reason I work to cut back on immigration.

Everyday Economics: A review of Tim Harford's Undercover Economist

New York Post


TIM Harford evidently hopes his new book "The Undercover Economist" joins the apostolic succession of 2005's pop social science bestsellers that began with Malcolm Gladwell's "Blink." Just as the hugely popular "Freakonomics" by economist Steven D. Levitt and journalist Stephen J. Dubner flaunted a front-cover blurb from Gladwell, "The Undercover Economist" splashes Levitt's "Required reading" tribute over the title.

French Lessons

American Conservative


The nation that neocons most love to hate has followed their immigration prescriptions—to devastating results.

A Celebration of the Jewish Contribution to the American Christmas



Of the top 10 Christmas pop songs, Jews wrote five and co-wrote two more.

Voting Rights Act should protect all citizens



Nationwide, 92 percent of all Latino elected officials who ran under a partisan label are Democrats, in large part because Hispanics are clumped together in "majority-minority" districts.

Sailer Scheme for Muslim Immigrant Buyouts: Anybody have a better idea?



A recent BBC documentary revealed that 55 percent of married Pakistanis in Britain are wed to first cousins! That's even a little higher than the inbreeding rates seen in Pakistan—probably because Muslims in Europe use cousin marriage as an engine of immigration fraud.

My "Citizenism" vs. Jared Taylor's "White Nationalism" - Part 2



There has been an underlying trajectory to Western history that has produced an America where citizenism is a lot more likely to appeal than white nationalism.

France in Flames: Immigration, Not “Discrimination,” Is the Problem



The brutal fact is that the economic failings of France's Muslim and African immigrants stem in large measure from their low average IQ.

A Buyout Option for Europe's Muslims



A push-pull policy could be very effective in getting Muslims to go away. European countries should combine the push of a crackdown on welfare and crime with the pull of a buy-out offer. Returning to the Old Country with a sizable nest egg would be alluring to many who haven't assimilated into the European middle class.

The Slow Suicide of the GOP



You might think that the Bush Administration would promote policies making family formation more affordable for its political base. But the latest government data suggest it is doing the opposite.

The Bush Bust



The Bush Administration is currently imploding on multiple fronts. Here at VDARE.com, we'd like to remind you that: We told you so!

The Man Who Would Be Justice

American Conservative


Last summer, when Alberto Gonzales's name was first floated as replacement for Sandra Day O'Connor, Bush lashed out at conservatives for their tepid response. Sounding like a cross between Don Corleone and the narrator of Green Eggs and Ham, the president bristled, "I don’t like it when a friend gets criticized. I'm loyal to my friends. And all of a sudden this fellow, who is a good public servant and a really fine person, is under fire. And so, do I like it? No, I don't like it at all."




It has become a journalistic cliché that keeping down working class wages through illegal immigration is "good for the economy" -- as if the American economy exists for its own sake as opposed to existing for the good of American citizens.

Important   "Affordable Family Formation"—The Neglected Key To GOP's Future



Mickey Kaus wrote on Slate.com: "Steve Sailer has boiled down the explanation for why some states become red and others become blue to three simple words. ("God" is not one of them.) ... His equation sure works for San Francisco. ..."

"Mexican Evolution" or "Republican Devolution"



White House strategist Matthew Dowd argues that we shouldn't worry our pretty little heads about illegal immigration from Mexico because it will go away in 2025.

The Wind from the South: Anti-White Populism



A mighty storm is brewing in Latin America, and it will eventually reach the U.S.

Census Bureau Deflates "Latino Power" Voting Hype



According to the Census survey, Hispanics cast only 6.0% of the vote in 2004, under my 6.1% prediction, and way under Michael Barone's 9% speculation.

Asian "Natural Republicans" vote heavily Democratic: Any more bright ideas?



Why have Asian-Americans deserted the GOP?

Pre-emptive Executions?

American Conservative


Did legalizing abortion in the early ’70s reduce crime in the late ’90s by allowing “pre-emptive capital punishment” of potential troublemakers, as Steven D. Levitt argues in Freakonomics? Or did the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, by outmoding shotgun weddings, adoption, and respect for life, instead make more murderous the early ’90s crack wars fought by the first generation of youths to survive legalized abortion?

Click here for my follow-up responses on abortion-crime.

The Dirt Gap: A Tale of Two States

American Conservative


The fundamental geographical reality underlying the division of Red vs. Blue states.

Autopsy of 2004 Exit Poll



Democrat Pollster Validates My Marriage Gap Red-Blue Theory



Unmarried women voted for Kerry by a 25-point margin (62% to 37%), while married women voted for President Bush by an 11-point margin (55%- 44%).

Alberto Gonzales Tortured the Law to Preserve Racial Quotas



Gonzales saved affirmative action in the 2003 University of Michigan cases by gelding the anti-affirmative action briefs written by Ted Olson—the truly tragic figure in this Administration.

The GOP’s Third Electoral Secret: Marriage, Fertility…And Cheap Housing



Out of 377 demographic measures, the top three correlates with Bush's share of the vote by state are Years Married among Whites, Growth in Housing Prices, and White Fertility.

The Marriage Gap: The Baby Gap's Big Brother



My sequel to "Baby Gap:" I find a demographic measure that correlates even more outrageously with the 2004 election results.

NRO Rebunks the Hispanic Vote



It’s supposed to be an attack on my interpretation of the 2004 presidential election results. But a close reading shows that it largely supports my contention: the President's unlimited open borders plan would both be bad for the Republican Party (by importing more future Democrats than Republicans) and would not make the GOP more popular with current Hispanic voters.

Vindication on the Hispanic Exit Poll



The exit poll's funders, AP and NBC, admit it inflated Bush's share.

The Baby Gap: Explaining Red vs. Blue States

American Conservative


Bush carried the 19 states with the highest white fertility (just as he did in 2000), and 25 out of the top 26. In sharp contrast, Kerry won the 16 states at the bottom of the white fertility list. Background data and graphs, along with reader responses, here.

What went wrong with the 2004 exit poll



The technical problems that caused that implausible report that Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote.

Blue States More Inegalitarian



Census Bureau figures show that California, traditionally America's trendsetter, is pioneering a new kind of class structure—ominously like that of highly unequal Latin American countries like Brazil or Mexico.

The 2004 IQ Wars: Kerry, Bush, and Red vs. Blue States



Millions of Democrats have consoled themselves with a chart claiming to show that the average IQ in Kerry states is much higher than in Bush states. It's the same hoax I exposed last May, but now I have a new table of honest data on average IQ by state. Unfortunately, it's outdated, but it's still interesting.

Bush's Brain

American Conservative


For a moment, I thought Sen. John F. Kerry was the exception to the rule that all liberals are secretly obsessed—even though they tell each other they don’t believe in it—with IQ.

From the Folks who Brought You President Kerry ...



The troubled exit poll that claimed that Bush won 44% of Hispanics is not just inconsistent with the real world, it's inconsistent even with itself, due to systematic inflating of Hispanic votes for Bush.

2004 Election Wrap-up



It took four years, but the conventional wisdom has finally accepted the “Sailer Strategy”—my oft-repeated argument (which got VDARE.com banned by Free Republic) that the simplest way for the GOP to win national elections is not outreach to minorities, but inreach, to its white base.

Does IQ Matter in a President?



This is a more philosophical follow-up to last week's investigative report This Just In: Kerry's IQ Likely Lower than Bush's!"

Popular   This Just In: Kerry's IQ Likely Lower than Bush's!



Bush's scores on the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test have been briefly mentioned in the press. But nobody before now has fully explained what they mean. And, even more important, this is first article to publish Kerry's score on the Navy's Officer Qualification Test. The two tests aren't perfectly comparable. But they provide no evidence that Kerry is smarter. If anything, Bush is smarter than Kerry.

The Bush-Kerry Debate on Immigration



What voters don't realize, because it seems too crazy to even consider, is that Bush is not only lying about amnesty for current illegal aliens, but that the President also wants to open the borders to an unlimited number of "temporary" workers.

Perils of Decriminalization

The American Spectator


In Quentin Tarantino's Jackie Brown, Samuel L. Jackson comes home to find Bridget Fonda lying on the couch, smoking dope, and giggling at the TV. Disgusted, he tells her that marijuana will rob her of her ambitions.

"Not if your ambition is to get high and watch TV," she replies.

Michael Barone, Call your Office!



The supposedly sky-rocketing Hispanic share of the vote shrank from 5.4 percent in 2000 down to 5.3 percent in 2002, according to new Census Bureau data.

Michelle Malkin's In Defense of Internment



Worries about Japanese attacks on the West Coast were not simply a rationalization to drive out the Japanese Americans. Serious decisions were based on these concerns. For instance, the huge Kaiser steel mill, where the Liberty boats were to be built, was situated well inland in Fontana, California, precisely to be out of range of Japanese battleships.

Jorge Ramos, Univision's Blue-Eyed Boy



While the 16 Presidential "battleground states" accounted for one third of the total vote in 2000, they were home to only 21 percent of Hispanic voters.

Moore is Less

American Conservative


Most of my movie reviews for The American Conservative are restricted to print to encourage you to subscribe, but my piece on "Fahrenheit 9/11" is on the web.

Black vs. Black, but not Black vs. Brown, at Harvard



“While about 8 percent, or about 530, of Harvard's undergraduates were black, Lani Guinier, a Harvard law professor, and Henry Louis Gates Jr., the chairman of Harvard's African and African-American studies department, pointed out that the majority of them — perhaps as many as two-thirds — were West Indian and African immigrants or their children, or to a lesser extent, children of biracial couples."

Presumed Alliance: Black vs. Brown



Compton, the spiritual home of West Coast gangsta rap, is notorious for its corrupt and dysfunctional black-run government. Still, a lot of people south of the Border have been down so long that even Compton looks like up to them.

A Bet for Barone



I have a bet for famed neoconservative pundit and television personality Michael Barone.

The Brown discussion's two missing letters: IQ



Writing about IQ, however, is wildly popular among Democrats … for the sole purpose of asserting mental superiority over Republicans, as shown by the table headlined "So Democrats really are smarter," which appeared on hundreds of blogs, and even was printed in The Economist.

New   Revolutionary Nepotism

The National Interest

Winter, 2004

Nepotism and dynasticism are on the rebound in politics, both abroad and at home. A major article in the prestigious quarterly The National Interest.

Immigration: Teddy K. outpanders Dubya



As I forecast, the Democrats have duly offered to not only give all illegal aliens amnesty, but also to put them on the road to citizenship…and, thus, to being good little Democrats.

Frist's First Priority: Medical Quotas



Med school quotas are justified on the grounds that the beneficiaries often end up working in a minority neighborhood. This is always presented as a heroic sacrifice by the quota doctor, as if Cedars-Sinai in Beverly Hills was dying to get him, but he felt such a strong sense of racial solidarity that he instead chose to work at a clap clinic in Compton.

Limits of Libertarianism: Northern v. Southern California



Northern California's traditional elitism has helped it withstand the onslaught of illegal immigration better than Southern California's traditional populist libertarianism.

Profile in Billionaire Courage



Perhaps even more heretically, UC Board of Regents Chairman John J. Moores thinks the academic-industrial complex should keep its mitts off the less bright half of the population.

The Claremont Reichstag Fire



On March 9, Kerri Dunn, a white female visiting professor of psychology at Claremont McKenna, dramatically announced at anti-"hate" forum that she had just become the victim of a hate crime: her car was covered with racist and anti-Semitic graffiti. Not surprisingly, the police soon announced that Professor Dunn had vandalized her own car.

Minority Outreach a Waste for GOP in 2004



Q: Should the GOP undertake more outreach to minorities during campaign 2004? 

A: NO: A better strategy is to increase GOP share of the white majority.

The "Too Diverse?" Brouhaha



There was never socialism in America because there was never feudalism in America. Contra Marx, the socialist urge grew not out of capitalism but out of the extreme inequality and rigidity of the aristocratic system, where the nobility owned almost all of the land by inheritance.

California Snoring, but ... 



Gov. Schwarzenegger's one entertainingly Ah-noldian (i.e., hyperambitious) moment came when he recently called for a Constitutional amendment opening the Presidency to immigrants, such as, oh, let's pick a crazy example out of left field, Gov. Schwarzenegger. So far, there has been no response from his office to rumors that President Schwarzenegger would then agitate for further reforms allowing agnostics to become Pope and Earthlings to become Galactic Overlord.

The Bush Cult Crumbles



We on the Realistic Right were denounced as heretics by the True Believer Right because we didn't understand that reality had become obsolete, that Bush had shown that new, improved realities could be conjured up through a sheer will to believe.

The Bush Adminstration's Malaise



History is likely to record the Bush Administration’s turning point as January 7, 2004, when Bush needlessly plunged his administration into a malaise by announcing the Karl Rove Amnesty Plan (a.k.a. KRAP).

The Battle of Algiers

American Conservative


Perhaps, though, our soldiers should have shown their civilian overlords “The Battle of Algiers” before the latter blithely decided to occupy an Arab country. For extra verisimilitude, the special-ops boys could have strapped Douglas Feith’s Office of Special Plans ideologue-warriors to their armchairs, pinned their eyelids open, attached electrodes, and applied little jolts of juice to help them remember the movie better. Even without such stimulation, “The Battle of Algiers” is hard to forget but also hard to enjoy.

Invade the World! Invite the World!



The French have traditionally tried to do with their immigrants almost exactly what the neocons recommend here: cultural assimilation, education in civics theories, monolingualism, meritocracy, separation of church and state, and all the rest. This may seem ironic, because nobody in Tikrit hates anybody worse than the neocons hate the French. But that's the way it usually turns out with ideologues: it's their nature to burn at the stake those heretics who deviate the most minutely.

Nothing Verboten: An Interview with Steve Sailer



Bernard Chapin interviews me on film criticism, what in the world happened to neoconservatism, and why the fix is in on immigration.

What Is Bush Thinking?



Steve Sailer would like to announce that he has finally lost all patience with George W. Bush.

Norquist & Rove Pursue The Muslim Falcon



It's perfectly natural for Muslim-Americans to favor Muslim interests -- just as it is for Armenian-Americans to favor Armenian interests, Jewish-Americans to favor Israeli interests, or Mexican-Americans to favor Mexican interests. But just because it's inevitable doesn't mean any such group should be exempt from criticism. The only way to keep ethnic activists honest is to not allow them to suppress debate by playing the race and religion cards.

Partition: Pro and Con



One measure of how bad the situation has gotten in Iraq: the foreign policy establishment is beginning to mention the P-word: Partition. When the setting is favorable for partition, such as in Canada, the bien-pensants uniformly favor multi-ethnic polities. They only turn to the nation-state as a last resort, when conditions are so desperate that partition probably won't work either.

Now We Know: What Happened in the Last Election



The 2002 elections might seem like a long time ago. But in vital ways they still provide the best guide to the rapidly approaching 2004 elections.

The GOP's Southern Strategy Wins Again



The Republican Party's venerable Southern Strategy was publicly tarred and feathered as racist and obsolete by all the most “Righteous Right” Beltway “conservatives” back during the Trent Lott brouhaha. But it remains the electoral strategy that actually, you know, wins elections for the GOP.

Graphic Evidence of the "Sailer Strategy" in California



Here's a graph showing that even in California, the way the GOP wins elections is by mobilizing white voters. The harsh fact is that when it comes to winning or losing, minority blocs are just pocket change to the GOP. (Make sure to click on the graph to enlarge it to readable size.)

Bustamante Goes Cruzin' for a Bruisin'



Yet, rather than run for Governor of all California, Bustamante campaigned as if the race was for el gobernador de Mexifornia. Every time I turned on the TV, Bustamante was paying tribute to "undocumented workers" and their moral right to drivers' licenses, free college tuition, and welfare. He turned the recall into a referendum on the wonderfulness of illegal immigration ... and lost, badly.

 Dear Arnie



Perhaps due to one of those Internet worms that are going around, this email from JC@ImKingoftheWorld.com mysteriously appeared in my inbox.

Never End a Nation with a Propostion



If believing propositions like "All men are created equal" is what makes a foreigner an American, what - in the Proposition Utopia of the near future - does disbelieving them make an American like me? A candidate for deportation?

Rove Means Never Having to Say You're Sorry



The truth, however, is that Rove's minority outreach initiatives have a lousy track record. And his disastrous attempt to win Muslim votes foreshadowed all the errors he's making with Mexican outreach.

Cognitive Dissidence on Quotas



The essence of statesmanship is heading off dangers before they become acute. Obviously, we can't rely on the Supreme Court (average age 69) to protect us from perils that will hit hardest after they have gone fully senile.

New   America's Scotch-Irish & Rove's Strategy



PRove is riding high now because George W. Bush has managed to electrify and even seemingly embody one particular ethnic group -- a group with high standards of self-sacrifice, one to which Americans have traditionally turned to for leadership in perilous times.

Sea Change or Smoke Screen?



Personally, I'm not terribly optimistic about the fate of neoconservative plans to turn Iraq (of all places) into Proposition Nation, Jr. But that probably won't hurt Bush much in the upcoming election. For many Americans, so far as I can judge from listening to country music radio stations, the Iraq Attaq wasn't about democratizing the Middle East. It was about racial revenge. Some Arabs blew up the World Trade Center, so we blew up some Arabs. Mission accomplished.

Karl Rove: Time for a Career Change?



Since conquering Iraq, the Bush Administration has been acting towards it with a timid indecisiveness disturbingly reminiscent of the Carter years. Rather than declaring martial law and immediately demonstrating to Iraqis who is in charge, the White House adopted a hands-off, laissez-faire policy. This seems based on the assumption that Iraq's looting louts, clamorous clansmen, mad mullahs, and café conspirators were as ready for self-government as would be, say, American Republicans. Conversely, under Rove, the Bush Administration has treated American Republicans as if they were a treacherous conquered tribe that must be ruled with a rod of iron. Clearly, the ideal solution would be to ...

California’s Racial Privacy Initiative: Sailer vs. Taylor Round II



We have official statistics documenting to the decimal place the racial makeup of the freshman class at the University of Michigan. In contrast, there are no official statistics on the religious makeup of the University of Michigan freshman class. But guess what? Without government data on the subject, nobody cares.

Ward Connerly's Racial Privacy Initiative



But if race is scientifically meaningful, does that argue against the RPI? I think the opposite is truer. To me, the RPI is appealing precisely because racial groups are fundamentally an outgrowth of that locus of primal human emotions, the family. That means race is and always will be a hot potato. Government should handle it as little as possible. Government should especially avoid throwing fuel on the potato by designating some groups as the beneficiaries and others as the victims of affirmative action.

Bush's Bakke II Brief: It's Déjà vu All Over Again



Many on the Naïve Right are exulting over the first paragraphs in President Bush's remarks on Wednesday siding against the University of Michigan for using a racial quota admissions system. But (ahem!) didn't the Supreme Court already outlaw "quotas" 25 years ago in the Bakke decision? Fat lot of good that did. And fat lot of good the Administration's "very narrowly tailored" brief to the Supreme Court will do either.

The Lott Fallout Begins



As I predicted last week, the Democrats enjoyed a very merry Christmas unwrapping the unexpected present gift-wrapped for them by the Righteous Right punditariat: the delegitimization of the last 38 years of GOP history.

The Righteous Right Fouls Up



Have you noticed that just about every GOP pundit has loudly congratulated himself as a moral exemplar for demanding Lott's resignation as Majority Leader -- yet none have called for Lott's resignation as Senator, and, in fact, many have denounced any thought that Lott should leave the Senate?

California Dreaming post-11/5



Taking another look at California's electoral prospects.

Whites, not Latinos, won it for GOP 

Washington Times


The demographic headline on the 2002 election was expected to be either "Democrats ride growing numbers of nonwhite voters to victory," or "GOP wins by attracting more minorities." Instead, non-whites played an anticlimactic role. The star turn was taken by what had become the Invisible Giant of American politics: the white electorate.

GOP Wins Using Sailer Strategy



Following the GOP's tepid performance in 2000, I argued than their best strategy was to maximize their white vote. Rove, DeLay, and Reed did exactly that this year. All their official talk about the necessity of GOP minority outreach was in effect a smokescreen for the Strategy That Dare Not Speak Its Name: turning out the white vote en masse.

Hispanic Republican Swing: A Media Myth



"Registered Latinos who identify as Republicans take a much more liberal stand on taxes and the size of government than their white counterparts. … About half (52%) of registered Latinos who identified themselves as Republicans said they would rather pay higher taxes to support a larger government, while only 17% of white Republicans stated that view."

The Emerging Democratic Majority



Many of the arguments in Judis & Teixeira’s new book will be familiar to students of the VDARE.COM School of voting analysis. Indeed, the phrase "The Emerging Democratic Majority" probably first appeared in print as the cover line introducing Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein’s 1997 National Review article "Electing a New People."

How the GOP can win in November



Publicly dump Bush's Mexican illegal immigrant amnesty plan and make attacks on Gephardt's proposed bill giving amnesty to all illegals into the central issue of the mid-term elections.

Ward Connerly's Racial Privacy Initiative



As a statistics geek, I'd love to be able to download all the Census data sorted by religion. But as an American, I'm glad I can't. There are some huge disparities among the followers of the various religions in America, but we think about these differences much less than we think about differences among categories about which the government collects statistics. And that's good for American unity.

The Mexican Vote & the Bush Dynasty



Nobody seems to understand just how tiny the Mexican-American vote actually is. This much-lusted after niche demographic cast only 3.0% of the vote in 2000, up from 2.6% in 1996. (My short article follows an excellent Howard Sutherland piece.)

San Fernando Valley Secession



Growing up, I'd always thought of "Studio City" as a perfectly normal name for a hometown. Then I went off to Rice U., where the Houstonians found me disappointing. They felt that as a Studio Citizen, I should be calling my agent while paddling around in one of those inflatable pool chairs.

Fortuyn: Demonization Has Consequences



Do the left, center, and the "respectable" right have Pim Fortuyn's blood on their hands?

California Race Shows Hispanic Cultural Conservatism a Paper Tiger



Although we've been told that Hispanics will vote Republican because they are cultural conservatives, the two leading candidates for governor in California are blithely ignoring this theoretical contradiction between appealing to East L.A. and West Hollywood.

Afghan Insights of Man Who Would Be King American Enterprise 12/3/01

Originally published on Sept. 26, and one of my most popular recent articles, this analysis of the wonderful 1975 Sean Connery movie argued that the Taliban could be beaten fairly easily, yet nation-building in Afghanistan is likely to prove futile.

Afghanistan's Family/Race Problem & Ours VDARE.com 10/30/01
Assembling a post-Taliban government in a land where every extended family has been the sworn enemy of practically every other family is particularly perplexing for Americans. Because we rely less upon our extended families than anyone else on Earth, we run into severe conceptual problems understanding Afghans, who rank clan honor over all else. Yet understanding how Afghans - and most other humans - think will also help us grasp our most persistent domestic problem: race.
Kicking Barone While He's Down VDARE.com 10/13/01
Perhaps Michael Barone has a Machiavellian plan in mind to use heavy immigration to drive whites out of the Democratic Party and into his Republican Party. Personally, I'm leery of this kind of political polarization along race lines. It may be inevitable, but shouldn't we try to explore ways as a nation to head this off? Democrats want the GOP to commit suicide chasing the chimera of conservative-voting minorities. As I predicted last January, the only minorities the GOP's diversity outreach effort had a good shot at picking up were Arabs and Muslims (by easing anti-terrorist rules). That ploy has proved a mistake.
9.11: Gods of the Copybook Headings Return VDARE.com 9/14/01
In response to the atrocities, supposedly post-nationalist Americans united in one vast surge of that most unfashionable of emotions, patriotism. Watching 350 firemen run into the collapsing World Trade Center towers to die heroes' deaths, we born-again patriots instantly grasped - after a decade of low dishonest assurances that we should put our trust in multicultural sensitivity or UN Conferences or foreign presidentes or globalized markets - the simple but stern law of national survival, "We must love one another or die," love one another enough to sacrifice for our nation, even unto death.
Ha Ha, We Were Right, Karl Rove Was Wrong VDARE.com 9/5/01
We said over a year ago that Fox was going to turn out to be George W. Bush's Yeltsin. We said last Fall that for the GOP to chase after the Hispanic vote via opening the immigration floodgates further made no electoral sense. We said in the middle of summer that Bush's amnesty plan was going to turn out to be HillaryCare all over again. You know, gloating has a bad reputation. But we could kind of get used to it.
Amnesty's Bad Math National Review Online 8/22/01
In the Uncle Remus version of the story, Br'er Fox and Br'er Bush would be implored by poor old Br'er Daschle and Br'er Gephardt to "Please don't throw us in the amnesty patch! No, not the amnesty patch!"
No Surrender, No Compromise, Just Victory VDARE.com 8/14/01
The Fox-Bush amnesty plan means that the immigration issue is finally back on the table. Sure, the risk of disaster is now much greater. Yet, if the new proposals are defeated, then the political psychology will radically change. And that will make rational reform finally possible.
Sullivan's Travails VDARE.com 8/10/01
Andrew Sullivan began shooting himself up with prescription testosterone about three years ago. Injecting the manly molecule transformed him from an underachiever, dragged down by his battle against his HIV infection, into just about the biggest ball of fire in the opinion industry.
The Innumeracy of Bush's Mexican Strategy VDARE.com 7/20/01
These kinds of electoral calculations do not require a Ph.D. in Mathematics. You just go look up the exit poll results and mess around with them. So, why does it sometimes seem like I'm the only Republican in America with Microsoft Excel? I can guarantee you, though, lots of Democrats understand these numbers.
A Major Review of Michael Barone's The New Americans VDARE.com 6/22/01
John Derbyshire, columnist for National Review Online, commented on this long essay: "Every once in a while I read something that makes me feel I ought to give up commentary altogether. This was one such. Why isn't Steve Sailer nationally famous? Rhetorical question--I know, I know..."

Multicultural Conservatism by Angela Dillard

National Review


"Black conservatives since Booker T Washington have traditionally focused more on uplifting the black poor, while black liberals have worked harder to help the black elite that W. E. B. DuBois dubbed the "Talented Tenth." The NAACP, for instance, cares more about restoring quotas at UC-Berkeley than doing anything that would actually help inner-city schools.

1. Conservatives vs. Conservation: How the GOP Drives Off White Voters VDARE.com 4/16/01
"The GOP is alienating white voters by positioning itself on the unpopular side of conservation issues that matter emotionally to its core vote."
2. A Pro-Family Conservation Program for the GOP VDARE.com 4/24/01
"The GOP needs a positive, patriotic, pro-humanity, pro-family conservationist program to contrast with the Democrats' misanthropic environmentalist program."
Libertariansim in One Country



"This is what libertarians must realize: There is staggeringly too much inequality in the world for America's love affair with capitalism to survive importing massive amounts of it."

San Francisco Chronicle: Those Damn WHAMs 



How can San Francisco's Asian American transgendered bisexual community feel affirmed without their own Board Member? (Of course, San Francisco also needs a new word to replace "Member." That term is terribly insensitive to San Franciscans who have gone to great expense to have themselves dis-membered.)

Election 2000 Results

GOP Future Depends on White Vote



The highly controversial article that revolutionized how Republicans think about their electoral future. "If Dubya had garnered 57% instead of just 54% of whites, he would have cruised to an Electoral College landslide of 367 to 171."

Unz vs. Sailer: The GOP's future - and America's VDARE.com 12/14/00

Few white Democrats actually care much about minorities. What they do care deeply about is feeling morally and culturally superior to other whites. The result is that the GOP isn't cool. Just look at the Republican's pathetic stable of celebrities. The only category of entertainers where the GOP leads the Democrats is in game show hosts (e.g., Pat Sajak and Ben Stein)..

Wanniski vs. Sailer... VDARE.com 12/15/00

The concept that running against illegal immigration is a vote-loser is a curious delusion of the Bush 2000 campaign.  Recall how Sonny Bono made a name for himself in politics. During a debate the moderator told him, "You have two minutes to give your opinion of illegal immigration." He stood up, and said, "It's illegal." Then, he sat down.

"Have You Stopped Whipping Your Slaves Yet?"



"For trying to win more minority votes, President George W. Bush has been widely commended. For failing to win them, he has been widely condemned … often by the same commentators. Bush brought this on himself and his party. By pinning a big "I Care" button on his breast, he automatically pinned an even bigger "Kick Me" sign on his butt. By campaigning on the theme, "I'm a new kind of Republican: I'm not a racist!", Bush has subjected himself and his nominees like John Ashcroft to nonstop questioning of the tenor of "Have you stopped whipping your slaves yet?"

Why Do Blacks Despise Dubya?



"In the states where Bush's Hispanic strategy worked best -- Florida and Texas -- his share of the black vote was abysmal: 7% in Brother Jeb's Florida and a truly stinking 5% in his own Texas."

Banned by Free Republic?



"Elections are supposed to be "divisive." In the British House of Commons, a vote is called a "division." Dividing the electorate to see who gets more votes is the essence of democracy. In contrast, keeping the people united is the essence of fascism. That's why Mussolini chose the name. A "fasces" is a bundle of rods that is weak when divided, but strong together."

Sailer on Blacks, Jews and the GOP: Part I VDARE.com 12/9/00

Consider why the Bush Brothers didn't win easily in Florida: because Governor Jeb infuriated the black elite with his One Florida plan. Jeb eliminated overt racial preferences in state university admissions, but actually increased the number of black students by guaranteeing college admission to any kid finishing in the top 20% of his high school class. What Jeb forgot was that black elites are not comprised of average blacks. Black leaders mostly send their kids to integrated schools, where their scions find it hard to rank in the top fifth. However, black leaders' kids tend to outscore the poor black kids on the SAT, so One Florida would tend to make affluent black kids worse off to the benefit of their poorer brethren.

Sailer on Blacks, Jews and the GOP: Part II VDARE.com 12/10/00

While most 20th century black leaders supported large-scale immigration, two of the most impressive - labor leader A. Phillip Randolph and Congresswoman Barbara Jordan - fought against it because it damages working class African Americans, even as it helps black civil rights hustlers.

GOP - California Dreamin' VDARE.com 11/21/00

Short of nominating Jennifer López for Vice President, what else exactly can the Republicans do to lure Latinos beyond what Bush did ... and still remain Republicans?

"Ethnic correctness" isn't saving CA GOP VDARE.com 10/26/00

Even Rich Rodriguez, a handsome, glib, popular, well-known local Mexican-American Republican, is still losing among Latinos in Fresno by a margin of 48% to 30% in the last poll. If the Anglo Democrat Cal Dooley (granted, there is something wacky about calling anybody named "Dooley" an "Anglo") maintains this proportion in the election, he wins a landslide 62% of the Latino vote.

Other Articles
Why Multiculturalism and Democracy don't mix (Balkans case study) VDARE.com 10/30/00

Democracy is what caused the mess in the Balkans. Multiculturalism works fine ... under a real dictator, like Tito. He had multiethnic Yugoslavia locked down tight, nice and peaceful. But when the inhabitants got more say in their lives, they started killing each other. They wanted democracy. But they knew that to have it, they needed mono-ethnic states.

Immigration and the National Question in Italy VDARE.com 9/25/00

Cardinal Giacomo Biffi, with Vatican backing, said he had recently aired the same views with a government minister. "I said, 'If you really have the good of Italy at heart, and want to spare a lot of suffering, then you can't allow all the immigrants in.'" He said he had warned the minister that civil unrest would be one of the consequences if immigration was not religious-selective. He told the minister: "I'm surprised you still haven't thought things through." He added: "I don't know how you're going to cope with Friday as a holiday, polygamy, discrimination against women, and the fundamentalism of Muslims, for whom politics and religion are the same thing. Do your sums properly."

The National Question and the Olympics VDARE.com 9/27/00

In the post-nationalist's fantasy, the Olympics wouldn't be organized by anything so passé as nationality. Instead, athletes sponsored by Coke would battle Nike's hired guns for world marketing supremacy. The only problem with this vision: nobody would watch. (Well, I'd watch, but I'm a sports statistics geek.)

How to Help the Left Half of the Bell Curve

1. Why We Aren't Supposed to Write about IQ



Almost all politicians and pundits have become comfortable offering policy prescriptions for Garrison Keillor's Lake Wobegon - "where all the children are above average." In the real world, however, half the school kids are always going to be lower than the median. Nor have many mentioned lately that this mathematical fact imposes upon the rest of us ethical obligations not to use complex laws, like our immigration policies, to exploit our less acute fellow citizens for our own benefit.

2. How the Other Half of the Bell Curve Lives



Nobody is willing to publicly admit that a whole lot of young people just didn't draw winning hands in the genetic lottery for intelligence. To state this fact is considered insensitive and, horrors, bad for self-esteem. Maybe, but to ignore it is to acquiesce in the IQ elite setting policies that are starkly self-interested and uncharitable.

3. IQ & the Class Struggle



The assumption that all men are created empirically equal lets Stanford MBAs blame growing economic inequality on the laziness of the lower orders, although the scientifically accurate response would be "There but for the grace of God, go I."

4. Not So Hot Ideas for Helping the Left Half



When American intellectuals imported the idea of welfare for single mothers from Sweden in the Sixties, they expected Americans to respond like Swedes. That was like expecting Jimi Hendrix to sound like ABBA.

5. Seven Ways to Help Our Fellow Citizens



It can be painful to speak honestly about such a sensitive topic as IQ. But only realism will allow us to do anything beneficial about it.

Multilingualism v. Democracy: the Swiss Exception



If we have given up trying to enforce English, can we ultimately remain a unified republic? There have been plenty of highly unified multilingual states - Stalin's Soviet Union, Tito's Yugoslavia, Suharto's Indonesia. But none survived democratization intact. The great exception to this dreary survey is Switzerland. How do they do it?

New   Does California Still Matter?



So is Fred Barnes right that California is no longer the best predictor of America's future? In the long run, California's immigration-driven trends toward Democrats and dystopia appear to be inevitable harbingers for much of the rest of the country. It won't be California that's irrelevant; it will be Barnes' Republican Party.

#1  Will Vincente Fox be Dubya's Yeltsin?



"Fox's election reconfirms in spectacular fashion the fundamental social fact of the last 479 years of Mexican history: whites rule, mixed-race mestizos toil, Indians endure. In a country where height is a major racial marker -- white men look down upon brown men both figuratively and literally -- much of Fox's vaunted charisma stems from his being 6'5": about a foot taller than the average Mexican.

#2  Free Marketeer Fantasies about Fox



"'The stunning victory of Mexico's president-elect Vincente Fox … opens the door to a period of sustained economic prosperity that could carry Mexico into the front-ranks of the information-age global economy,' exclaims supply side economist Larry Kudlow. Sorry, Larry, but it's not going to happen. Nothing Fox could possibly do will convert the Mexican people into Mountain Dew-mainlining way cool Linux geeks."

Part 1: Mexico's Corrupt White Elite



"By providing a safety valve that drains off Mexico's most desperate young brown men, our lax borders have allowed Mexico's most avaricious old white men to loot their nation with impunity. In the U.S., this mestizo influx generates ever greater quotas and set-asides designed to propel their climb in American society. In contrast, in Mexico all the best jobs in government, industry, and academia are becoming ever more segregated.
Debate with Ron Unz

First  Can the Melting Pot Be Revived?



Ron Unz advocates mass immigration and old-fashioned assimilation policies. Can this circle be squared? The professional politicians don't think so: they're choosing appeasement over assimilation.

Second  Ron Unz Replies (but I get the last word)



A Better Way in Kosovo? 

National Post


"A year ago, NATO attacked Yugoslavia. It's worth recalling President Bill Clinton's explanation of Why We Fought: "The principle we and our allies have been fighting for in the Balkans is the principle of multiethnic, tolerant, inclusive democracy." Well ... happy anniversary, Kosovo! What could the West have done instead? The answer, shockingly enough, is to have sponsored and made humane the inevitable ethnic cleansing."

Census Follies



"The Administration will indeed let people who are part white and part minority check two (or more) boxes. But then the government will simply ignore the white box." 

Bilingual Education - Bipartisan Blunder



"Bilingual education is a fraud perpetrated against Hispanic youngsters. Its secret goal is to delay the immigrant student's switchover to English until he's past puberty, when the mind's language-learning faculty grows rigid, and the hope of ever losing a foreign accent fades."

John McCain - Licensed to Hate



"John McCain's appeal stems in large part from the fact that nature and cruel nurture have fashioned him into the Senate's finest hater. This kind of man can be hugely useful. If, say, extra-terrestrials bearing To Serve Man cookbooks were invading, there is no one better suited to lead us Earthlings in a war of racial extermination against the space gooks. In these less-desperate times, though, most of his longtime colleagues in the Senate seem to dread the idea of such a man of wrath becoming President."

Immigration vs. Environmentalism



"Only 7% of the Sierra Club's 550,000 members are minorities of any kind, compared to about 28% of the entire population. As a predominantly blue collar group, immigrants from Latin America indulge in the traditional working class disdain for hoity-toity upper middle class environmentalists. During an economic downturn, Hispanic blue collar voters are likely to favor relaxing California's stringent restrictions on factories, construction, and landscaping."

Immigration vs. African Americans



"Serious discussions of immigration reform have been off the table for years in America precisely because the current immigration policies provide America's verbalist elite with a new, improved servant class at no cost to themselves in terms of greater competition. Mexican immigrants are not taking jobs away from American lawyers, media people, politicians, and corporate bosses.  Instead, small, brown, diligent, and submissive immigrants have displaced large, black, unmotivated, and surly native-born Americans as our service workers of choice."

Is George W. Bush a Moron?

Intellectual Capital


"Does Gov. Bush's 1206 SAT score (566 Verbal, 640 Math) truly mean he's as dumb as a box of rocks?"

Types of Right by John O'Sullivan: on Steve Sailer's role

National Review


"5. Evolutionary Conservatives. This is an almost wholly intellectual group (e.g., Steve Sailer, John McGinnis, Charles Murray)— not a politician brave enough to stand with them — who have realized two things: first, that lessons of the new science of evolutionary psychology are largely conservative ones about an adamantine human nature, the natural basis of sex roles, and so on; second, that the knowledge gained from the Human Genome Project and the rise of genetic engineering will throw up some fascinating and contentious political issues in the increasingly near future."

JFK, Jr. America's Prince Di: The desire to be ruled by dynasties ain't dead, folks.

National Post


How Jackie Robinson Desegregated America

National Review


Perhaps the least-learned lesson of the saga of Jackie Robinson is that competition can transform self-interest into an engine for racial fairness. (Probably my most popular article) 
Coming Soon: Beautiful Cover Photo of Jackie and Pee Wee Reese

Where the Races Relate

National Review


Why do the U.S. Army and college sports teams do so much of a better job at managing race relations than elite colleges?

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