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other commentaries, go to: August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 Mar 2004 Feb 2004 Jan 2004 Dec 2003 Nov 2003 Oct 2003 Sep 2003 Aug 2003 Jul 2003 Jun 2003 May 2003 Apr 2003 Mar 2003 Feb 2003 Jan 2003 Dec 2002 Nov 2002 Oct 2002 Sep 2002 Aug 2002 July 2002 May-Jun 2002 Mar-Apr 2002 Jan-Feb 2002 Dec 2001
September 2004 Archive
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#debate3 Debate Impressions:
- This was more of a true debate than most Presidential "debates," which are usually just a couple of guys giving short, stock speeches while they happen to be standing on the same stage.
The Republican Convention worked well for Bush because there was nobody to point out that Iraq wasn't the War on Terror, it was the War in Error. But the first debate had some real punching going on.
BUSH: … But the enemy attacked us, Jim, and I have a solemn duty to protect the American people, to do everything I can to protect us…I was hopeful diplomacy would work in Iraq. It was falling apart. There was no doubt in my mind that Saddam Hussein was hoping that the world would turn a blind eye...
KERRY: Jim, the president just said something extraordinarily revealing and frankly very important in this debate. In answer to your question about Iraq and sending people into Iraq, he just said, "The enemy attacked us."
Saddam Hussein didn't attack us. Osama bin Laden attacked us. Al Qaida attacked us. And when we had Osama bin Laden cornered in the mountains of Tora Bora, 1,000 of his cohorts with him in those mountains. With the American military forces nearby and in the field, we didn't use the best trained troops in the world to go kill the world's number one criminal and terrorist. They outsourced the job to Afghan warlords, who only a week earlier had been on the other side fighting against us, neither of whom trusted each other. That's the enemy that attacked us. That's the enemy that was allowed to walk out of those mountains. That's the enemy that is now in 60 countries, with stronger recruits...
BUSH: First of all, of course I know Osama bin Laden attacked us. I know that.
Ouch.
Bush should have loftily changed the subject, but Kerry had gotten under his skin with that accurate accusation, causing him to snarl back in an un-Presidential snit.
Bush was exposed as having one of those grandiose but fragile egos that responds violently to perceptions of being dissed, that kind that cause so many bar fights:
GWB: "Hey you! Are you lookin' at my girlfriend?"
You: "No, not at all."
GWB: "Well, whazzamata with her that you ain't lookin' at her? Are you sayin' she's ugly? Is that what you're saying? You wanna a piece of me?"
- While it made better than average television for debate viewers, I wouldn't think the debate's feistiness works to Bush's advantage. If you are the incumbent and hold the lead in the polls, you normally don't want to get down on the floor and wrestle with your challenger. You want to maintain the Presidential aura around yourself by only occasionally deigning to notice this non-Presidential lifeform with whom you have graciously condescended to temporarily share a stage.
At a campaign dinner Monday, President Bush identified incumbency as the key issue in the upcoming presidential election. "Look at my opponent's record on incumbency," Bush said. "John Kerry is not the president at this time. That's an indisputable matter of public record." Bush added that the American public should seriously consider whether it wants to risk electing a president who has no experience heading a nation, has never resided in the White House, and does not have even one State Of The Union address under his belt.
Okay, that's from The Onion, but you get the point. There are a lot of people out there who, deep down, superstitiously regard the duties of the President as somewhat akin to those of the Aztec priests who somehow kept the sun rising every morning by ripping beating hearts out of human chests. These voters think to themselves, "Well, look at all the bad things that haven't happened during the incumbent's four years in office, like ... well, like... the Earth hasn't crashed into the Sun. He must be doing something right!" And they are uneasy about the challenger's abilities to handle the Presidency's mysterious but no doubt challenging Orbit Maintenance duties.
- Kerry looks like the President that central casting would send over if you told them you needed a minor star to play a generic President. If this President thing doesn't work out, Kerry could star in "The James Brolin Story!" Seriously, after the debate, it's certainly easy to visually imagine Kerry as President for the next four years, which has to work to his advantage.
- The Kerry people must be celebrating how peeved they made the President look. I would think that Kerry won the debate by making Bush look small and nasty. But what do I know? Karl Rove has lots of polls and focus groups to tell him about how to appeal to the swing voters in the swing states, such as, perhaps, this gentleman. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#che "The Motorcycle Diaries:" An excerpt from my review of the critically acclaimed movie about the young Che Guevara's roadtrip around South America in the Oct. 25th edition of The American Conservative (available in full to electronic subscribers tonight):
The subtitled "Motorcycle Diaries" goes easy on the politics (and ignores Che's obsessive anti-Americanism), barely hinting at why Dr. Guevara would soon abandon healing for killing.
At the end, Che proclaims, "We are a single mestizo race, from Mexico to the Magellan Straits." The Guevaras, however, weren't mestizo at all. They were a family of decayed aristocrats with leftist pretensions and bohemian manners.
In practice, this "mestizo myth" paradoxically serves to maintain the white ascendancy. In Mexico, the corrupt ruling party with the contradictory name, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, preached that all Mexicans belong to "La Raza," the "cosmic race" perfectly blending white and Indian. This allowed the PRI, which became more and more dominated by whites as decades passed, to divert attention away from the huge gaps in wealth between whites, mestizos, and Indians. (Mexico's myth of universal mestizaje was prudent: in neighboring Guatemala, in contrast, race war flared throughout the 1980s.)
Similarly, the ideology allowed white revolutionaries like Guevara and Abimael Guzman, founder of Peru's Shining Path guerillas, to justify their leadership of movements built on the brown masses' resentment of the privileges of the Conquistadors' heirs. Worse, while straightforward populism could have satisfied the oppressed, the disastrous prestige of Marxism provided white radical intellectuals with an abstruse body of theory with which to intimidate the less educated into being their followers.
Unfortunately, it's an iron law of history that the countries that most need a revolution are the least likely to profit from one. The Cuban revolution inspired Marxist upsurges in other Latin countries, which led to military crackdowns. When the armies went back to the barracks, free market democrats took over, but, outside of Chile, largely appear to have failed. This decade's trend is toward anti-white leftist populism, as exemplified by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
But, at least, white Communists like Guevara are mostly dead, or moribund like Castro. By Latin America's standards, that's progress. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#bigman34 Did Bush get out-Big-Manned? A reader writes:
Kerry looked calmer, more presidential than Bush. Right from the when they shook hands, Kerry looked more relaxed. Bush was the one to awkwardly pulled away and seems to have laughed at something Kerry said. Kerry was being the charmer, rather than Bush.
Kerry's stature, height and voice helped him project a leader image. He might have out Big-Manned Bush. Bush in 2000 crushed Gore in this category: Gore's lisp, pudginess, weird robotic movements, gasps and near eyebrowless face were no match compared to Bush's lean looks, strong chin and choppy drawl.
You're right about Bush's expressions -- didn't he learn from his first debate with Gore when it hurt Al?
So on the presentation level, Kerry won. Kerry actually benefited from low expectations, since he's been taking a pounding in the polls and press. Also, I believe most people expected Bush to surprise again, like he did against Gore. He didn't, mainly because Kerry was better than advertised, especially compared to his amateurish, rushed performance at the DNC. Kerry should see a modest bounce in the polls, but he didn't change things drastically. What did come across is there wasn't much to latch onto when Kerry spoke -- he sounds good, but will anyone connect? I don't think many will.
I wrote in the American Enterprise Institute's magazine:
Before the 2000 Presidential election, political scientists predicted a big Gore victory because the country was enjoying peace and prosperity. The experienced, intelligent, hardworking Vice President cruised into the first Presidential debate with a nice lead over his opponent. Yet, when much of the public paid close attention to the two men for the first time that evening, Gore quickly began to sink in the polls.
Conservative commentators spun out millions of words trying to explain, with little success, why many average folks had found Gore disconcerting and phony sounding. His notorious muscular stiffness clearly contributed, but Gore also displayed a minor speech defect peculiarly unfortunate in a man running for Commander in Chief. Earlier in the campaign, my wife pointed out to me Gore’s barely noticeable tendency to hiss his “s” sounds. I ran our impressions by the brilliant liberal comedian Harry Shearer, who voices a dozen and a half characters on “The Simpsons,” including the evil billionaire Mr. Burns and his devoted gay male secretary Smithers. He replied about Gore, “It’s not a lisp, as in ‘lithp.’ Rather, it’s a sibilant problem, in which the sibilants are pronounced in a thinner, more ‘hissy’ fashion than is normal among American males.”
It’s not fashionable to notice this, but this “lissssp” makes Gore sound prim, even homosexual, especially in contrast to the folksy masculinity of Bush’s Texas accent. According to experiments conducted by J.Michael Bailey, chairman of the Northwestern University psychology department, showing that audiences can fairly accurately distinguish straights from gays by voice alone, the “lissssp” is one of the three main clues.
Although the pundits were clueless, experts on what Camille Paglia calls “sexual personae” picked up on the impression his “lissssp” made. After the first debate, comedian Billy Crystal joked that Gore sounded like a “gay waiter.” Shearer said that he sounded like a “gay robot.” Paglia herself complained about Gore’s “prissy, lisping, Little Lord Fauntleroy persona, which borders on epicene.” Of course, Gore is a happily married father of four, but his pronunciation quirk tends to confuse first-time listeners. And effeminate traits simply don’t fit many voters’ image of a President. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#churchlady1 Debate -- First Reaction: George W. Bush as Dana Carvey's Church Lady: What struck me the most was how much anger and hostility the President radiated on the split-screen while Senator Kerry was criticizing him. Especially during the first half of the debate, Bush kept pulling his chin up to make his mouth into a thin-lipped straight line as if he was biting his lip to keep himself from interrupting his opponent. He looked remarkably like Dana Carvey's old Saturday Night Live character, The Church Lady, who would sit brimming with repressed rage while somebody rambled on, and then spit out, "Well, isn't that special." Unfortunately, despite all his grins and smirks and half-chuckles, the President almost never says anything funny.
This Church Lady expression is particularly unfortunate when debating Kerry, because by pulling up his chin, it makes Bush look less masculine, more like an old lady, in contrast to Kerry's ultra-elongated jaw.
Kerry, in contrast, looked like a conventional stuffed shirt candidate. But he certainly appeared more in control of himself than the President, who occasionally seemed like he wanted to punch somebody.
It seems pretty obvious to me that Bush is a mean little son-of-a-gun who has a big chip on his shoulder when he is criticized because he knows, deep down, that he's in over his head in a job that's just too big for him. But maybe people like that -- I suspect that the 1948 election was similar in terms of personality: angry little Truman versus stuffed-shirt Dewey.
By the way, I was frustrated that NBC cut away from the split-screen to show only Kerry while the Senator hammered Bush's decision to invade Iraq by quoting from the President's father on why he didn't occupy Iraq in 1991. I would have loved to have seen that expression on Bush's face.
A reader writes:
W is his mother's son for sure. Not sure how people think Babs Bush is nice as I never got that impression. Kerry won this by being in control, if he'd been more himself showing off his ability to talk on both side of every issue he would've imploded but his handlers and his trailing in the polls helped enforce his discipline. If he doesn't blow the next two debates I'd say he will win and because of the Iraq debacle. Maybe that's why Bush is so upset, feeling he invaded Iraq at the bequest of the powerful (i.e., the Neocons) and he is now being bleed politically. Its a little like LBJ and Vietnam except LBJ of all people took it better than Bush is taking it. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#soldierettes Pregnant Soldierettes: Retired Col. David Hackworth says on his www.Hackworth.com site:
Psst. Did you hear that the infamous PFC Lynndie R. England is pregnant? And so are thousands of less famous service women in all branches, especially the Army and Marines. Please tell me what’s going on in your outfit. I’ve been getting serious stonewalling from the PAO folks at the Pentagon. They treat pregnancy stats with a higher security classification then the number of nukes in their arsenals. Am told they have no stats on pregnancy and they suggest it is not a big problem. This is totally opposite of what hundreds of troops have reported to me. If you can get your hands on some hard stats for your unit, please send ‘em along. Have the stats for the 101st Airborne and 3d Mech and they’re mind boggling. Send your input to me. Thx, Hack.
The rule of thumb from when I researched this topic after Desert Storm was that 18-26 year old enlisted women have babies at the same rate as 18-26 year old civilian women, which means an enormous number of medical evacuations. Getting pregnant is one way to get the hell out of Baghdad or off some boring ship, and lots do it. Of course, the wives of male soldiers hate how often their men come home from tours of duties as the daddies of some other woman's baby. But they're just wives, not feminist role model heroines like the women soldiers their husbands are impregnating, so nobody in Congress listens to them. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#dumbgap Dumb ideas never die: From the new September 30, 2004 edition of Nature, Britain's premiere scientific journal (on-line only for subscribers):
Momentous sprint at the 2156 Olympics? Women sprinters are closing the gap on men and may one day overtake them.
The 2004 Olympic women’s 100-metre sprint champion, Yuliya Nesterenko, is assured of fame and fortune. But we show here that — if current trends continue — it is the winner of the event in the 2156 Olympics whose name will be etched in sporting history forever, because this may be the first occasion on which the race is won in a faster time than the men’s event.
The Athens Olympic Games could be viewed as another giant experiment in human athletic achievement. Are women narrowing the gap with men, or falling further behind? ... In a limited test,we plot the winning times of the men’s and women’s Olympic finals over the past 100 years ... against the competition date... Should these trends continue, the projections will intersect at the 2156 Olympics, when — for the first time ever — the winning women’s 100-metre sprint time of 8.079 seconds will be lower than that of the men’s winning time of 8.098 seconds.
I have been trying (and, obviously, failing) to kill this idea for 7 years, since my 1997 articles in Sports Science News and my "Track and Battlefield" in National Review. The gender gap in running is larger today than it was in 1988, a full 16 years ago. It might even be bigger than it was in 1976! Sure, the gender gap was closing rapidly up through 1988, but that was a long, long time ago. You simply can't project into the future based mostly on what happened from 1932 through 1988.
As I pointed out recently in my Olympic wrap-up in The American Conservative (not on-line):
Everyone automatically assumes that women are catching up to men in running speed, but the truth is that the "gender gap" in times between male and female medallists was actually slightly wider in 2004 (men ran 11.23% faster than women in equivalent races) than way back in 1976 (11.18%).
Why? From 1970-1988, white women from Communist countries accounted for 71 of the 84 records set at 100m-1500m. In contrast, Warsaw Pact white men set exactly zero of the 23 male records. Then the Berlin Wall fell, and we learned how East German coaches enabled white women to outsprint black women so consistently: by chemically masculinizing them. It turns out that masculinity -- in its lowest common denominator definition of muscularity and aggressiveness -- is not a social construct at all: East German biochemists simply mass-produced masculinity.
The East German bioengineers were stumped at producing male sprint champions, however, because the benefits of a given amount of steroids are much greater for women than men. Since men average 10 times more natural testosterone than women, they need dangerously large, Ben Johnson-sized doses to make huge improvements, while women can speed-up significantly on smaller, less-easily detected amounts. Thus, the reduction in steroid use due to improved drug testing has hurt women's times more.
The other major reason for the widening of the gender gap after 1998 is that the scandal of Ben Johnson, who was injecting so many steroids his eyes had turned yellow, winning the men's 100m in a subsequently disqualified world record was so great that more effective steroid tests were subsequently implemented.
Florence-Griffith Joyner, after losing the 1987 World Championship in the 200m to East German Silke Gladisch, who was caught by an improved drug test a few years later, turned to "Benoid" Johnson for advice. Flo-Jo then reappeared in 1988 with enormous superheroine muscles. She ran an unbelievable 10.49 in the 100m the Olympic Trials and then 10.54 (wind-aided) to win the 1988 Olympics. She immediately retired and was never subject to the tougher post-Ben Johnson Olympics.
In contrast, the Belarus woman who won in a surprise in 2004, with many top sprinters sidelinded by drug allegations, recorded a 10.93, almost 4% slower than in 1988.
In contrast, Justin Gatlin's men's winning time in Athens of 9.85 was faster than Carl Lewis's legal winning time in 1988 of 9.92 and just 0.5% slower than Ben Johnson's doped-to-the-gills 9.79.
What do they have at Nature? Super-rigorous standards for most contributions and super-easy ones for politically correct essays? ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#lindx The importance of training Iraqi troops is overrated: We're constantly hearing about how important it is that more troops in Iraq be trained, when the real problem is how to get them to want to fight for us. What we're hearing out of Washington these days is the equivalent of Lincoln announcing that Robert E. Lee had turned down his offer of command of the Union Army in order to go fight for the other side because Lee lacked sufficient training. William S. Lind writes:
Unfortunately, the problem is not training, but loyalty. All the training in the world is worthless if the people being trained have no reason to fight for those who are training them. And a paycheck isn’t much of a reason, especially when the fellow Iraqis they are to battle are fighting for God. *** http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#help2 Help Needed: Were you ever an officer in the U.S. Navy or Air Force (or their respective National Guards)? I need help interpreting military aptitude test scores earned by two former colleagues of yours when they joined up back in the 1960s. If you took the tests, please E-mail me. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#dawkinsmore Richard Dawkins' skin-deep courage: A reader writes:
I think you let him off too easy [in my VDARE column]. Dawkins promotes himself as someone who is compelled to speak the truth, no matter the consequences or what feelings get hurt, when the subject is religion, then goes soft when the topic is race. I would tolerate his reticence on the latter if it weren't so self congratulatory when doing the former, as unlike questioning orthodoxy on race, atheism is no longer a heresy with consequences. As a matter of fact, one of Dawkin's favorite targets, the C of E is no longer a religion with consequences, which makes his time wasting attacks on it even less impressive:
Five years ago I wrote, "Darwin seems to lose out with the public primarily when his supporters force him into a mano-a-mano Thunderdome death match against the Almighty. Most people seem willing to accept Darwinism as long as they don't have to believe in nothing but Darwinism. Thus, the strident tub-thumping for absolute atheism by evolutionary biologists like Richard Dawkins, author of the great book "The Selfish Gene," is counter-productive."
I've also noticed that many of the prominent evolutionary scientists who like to publicly sound off on the non-existence of God have thought less deeply about the subject than the typical bright college sophomore. Years of easily beating up on Creationists tend to induce a smugness in evolutionists much less often found in cosmologists, who often realize that their field deals with many issues first raised by theologians.
I recall an email discussion in 1997 that I had with a very prominent evolutionist and atheist. I asked him: "So, what caused the Big Bang?" and "How come in our universe life was able to evolve because gravity isn't so strong it crushes all life or so weak everything flies off into space? Why is gravity, and other parameters like the strong nuclear force, just right for life to evolve?" He's an extremely smart guy, but he didn't seem to have ever heard these modern chestnuts before, even though they are just scientifically updated versions of Aquinas' Prime Mover and Paley's Watchmaker arguments for the existence of God. This famous scientist and spokesman for atheism then conceded that, logically, he ought to be an agnostic! ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#greenberg Top Democratic pollsters endorse "Sailer Strategy:" The upcoming Oct. 25th issue of The American Conservative [subscribe here] is expected to include my cover story on voter demographics explaining why journalists write so much tripe about how professionals segment the electorate. Ever since my 2000 VDARE article "GOP Future Depends on Winning Larger Share of the White Vote," I've written how chasing minorities is secondary to chasing the majority because ... the majority is, by definition, bigger. (This ain't rocket science, folks.)
Now, a new memo by top Democrat pollster Stanley Greenberg outlines the eight demographic groups that Kerry must focus upon:
The Unrealized Change Voters" White non-college educated women (25 percent of the electorate). White rural voters (17 percent). White young voters under 30 years (8 percent). White senior women (10 percent).
Unconsolidated Democrats White single women (14 percent). Well-educated white women (16 percent). White union households (17 percent). African Americans (10 percent).
The Surprising Consequences of Culture War White college-educated men (18 percent). White mainline Protestants (14 percent). ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#timber Only a few boys think they can grow up to be President: When thinking about the two Presidential candidates, the plaintive question that keeps coming up is: "Out of nearly 300,000,000 people, are these two guys the best American can do?" But what jumps out is that Bush and Kerry come from a tiny class of people who found it reasonable to think about being President from an early age.
Nothing in Bush's individual career before he stopped drinking at age 40, and surprisingly little afterwards, suggested he was Presidential Timber, but his grandfather was a Senator and his father was considered P.T. for a long, long time, so it didn't seem as ludicrously implausible as it would to anybody else with Bush's talents and character. For example, I have a relative with a very similar personality, habits, and credentials as the President -- a charismatic, hard-drinking aging frat boy with an MBA from a top school-- but when he talks about going into politics, it's as a suburban city councilman or assemblyman, because that's what his dad did for awhile.
Kerry came from farther down the social-political ladder, although not that much farther down: when he was 16, he dated the First Lady's half-sister, and famously went sailing with President Kennedy. From, that point on, and especially after JFK's assassination the next year, there was this quasi-mystical aura aura this second JFK, another Massachusetts's Catholic Democrat, who very much looked like Presidential Timber. Whether Kerry has done much to vindicate over the last 30 years the infinite hopes his first 30 years elicited, however, is another question. ***
Important Request for Help: I've found some interesting test scores on military entrance exams. (Sorry about being coy at present.) If you have any thoughts on how I can translate two digit raw scores on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (from way back in the Sixties) or from the AFOQT into percentile terms, please Email me. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#dawkins New VDARE column on Richard Dawkins on race:
To show that racial categories can be informative at the cosmetic level, he writes:
"Well, suppose we took full-face photographs of 20 randomly chosen natives of each of the following countries: Japan, Uganda, Iceland, Sri Lanka, Papua New Guinea and Egypt. If we presented 120 people with all 120 photographs, my guess is that every single one of them would achieve 100 per cent success in sorting them into six different categories… I haven't done the experiment, but I am confident that you will agree with me on what the result would be."
Dawkins' heart is in the right place on this issue—but he should do the experiment. He would be surprised. It's quite likely that outsiders would confuse some of the Ugandans and the Papuans.
The tribes of New Guinea and the nearby Melanesian Islands come in many different looks, but some are very similar in appearance to sub-Saharan Africans. Here, for example are two Papuan boys who, to my untrained eye, look like Africans. And here are some pleasant pictures of nearby Solomon Islanders who belong to an Anglican religious order known as the Melanesian Brotherhood. They look much like these Ugandans, who live 9,000 miles to the west...
I suspect that if you visited the two regions, you would eventually learn to distinguish the two groups with fairly high accuracy. But it would take time.
So, if a Papuan and a Ugandan look similar enough to be mistaken for each other by outside observers, are they the same race?
No.
Genealogically, they are radically different. Their lineages diverged far back in prehistory and they have had virtually no common ancestors for, perhaps, tens of thousands of years. According to L.L. Cavalli-Sforza's landmark 1994 book The History and Geography of Human Genes, the two human groups most genetically dissimilar overall to "Bantus," such as Central Africans, are "New Guineans" and "Melanesians."
Instead, African-looking Papuans are actually more racially similar to other Papuan tribes that don't look much like Africans at all.
Looks are skin deep. Race, in contrast, is who your ancestors were, and, thus, who your relatives are.
By the way, Dawkins' thought experiment is borrowed from one that Berkeley anthropologist Vince Sarich has often used:
"If I took a hundred people from sub-Saharan Africa, a hundred from Europe, and a hundred from Southeast Asia, took away their clothing and other cultural markers, and asked somebody at random to go sort them out, I don't think they'd have any trouble at all."
The difference between Sarich's version and Dawkins' inferior imitation is that Sarich actually knows what he's talking about when it comes to race, so he easily avoids the Ugandan-Papuan trap that Dawkins stumbles into.
Also, there are more than a few Egyptians who look a lot like Ugandans. Plus, a lot of unsophisticated people would get black-skinned Sri Lankan Tamils confused with Ugandans and Papuans.
Africans and Melanesians: I don't believe anyone knows whether the first Melanesians and New Guineans looked like modern Africans. (I'm not sure were too certain what most of the inhabitants of Africa looked like either back during the Out of Africa exodus/exoduses.) Perhaps they always looked alike, or perhaps they converged to the same look. Certainly the climate is similar, so natural selection might well induce convergent evolution. On the other hand, Amazonian Indians like this Yanamamo and the wild men of Borneo, like this Dayak, don't look much at all like Ugandans or Papuans.
There are a lot of social similarities between sub-Saharan Africa and New Guinea/Melanesia. The women do most of the agricultural work and the men tend to see themselves as fighters / lovers / artists / entertainers / politicians rather than as bring-home-the-bacon work-a-daddy family men. Perhaps that's purely a function of the societies, but, then, when a society selects one kind of man as the most desirable kind of husband, that society tends to get more of those kind of men. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#pouty Gregory Rodriguez can't stand "Pouty White People" -- LA Times pundit Rodriguez is mad at the 57% of "Anglo" Californians who say the state will be a worse place to live in two decades. Rodriguez sums up:
California's crumbling infrastructure can be rebuilt, and its broken education system can be repaired. But that's not going to happen until we re-create the social contract that built postwar California. That contract must be founded on a shared vision of the future. If Anglo California is not willing to provide one, then at the very least it should make way for those who do.
Okay, but considering that already in LA County, an amazing 53% of the adults are functional illiterates, according to Ed Rubenstein's new VDARE article, perhaps Mr. Rodriguez should ponder who, exactly, is going to be left to read his essays in the LA Times after the remaining Anglos "make way." ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#gates Ignoring the obvious again: A few months ago, Henry Louis Gates, the boss of Black Studies in America, complained about how black immigrants from Africa and the Caribbean are taking about 2/3rd of the affirmative action spots at Harvard that everybody thought we're supposed to go to African-Americans as compensation for slavery and Jim Crow. Today, he writes in the NYT a column called "Getting to Average" about what could help the lower half of black America get off its back economically. He perceptively notes:
The glory days for the black working class were from 1940 to 1970, when manufacturing boomed and factory jobs were plentiful. But when the manufacturing sector became eclipsed by the service economy, black workers ended up - well, stuck in a demographic Buffalo.
Hmmhmmhh, what's happened since then to drive blacks out of blue collar jobs or undermine their pay? So, does Gates take this golden opportunity to complain about illegal immigrants economically damaging African-Americans who aren't potential Harvard students? Of course not, for the usual reasons why black leaders don't publicly attack the illegal immigration that's hurting blacks, as I explained last June in VDARE.com. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#frisby Here's a nice story: The 39-year-old college football player. Tim Frisby retired after 20 years as a paratrooper with the 82nd Airborne. A father of six, he has a 3.8 GPA at the University of South Carolina, and has made the varsity team as a walk-on wide receiver.
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#uday UPDATE: Did Saddam have doubles? As I mentioned below, a number of the horror stories about Saddam's regime that we all thought were true have not been confirmed even though we've had most of Saddam's regime in custody for a year, and ve haf vays of making them talk. One story I very much hope is true, being a big fan of Heinlein's novel "Double Star," is that Saddam employed a lot of body doubles to avoid assassination.
The tales seem to go back to a book entitled "I Was Saddam's Son" by Latif Yahia, who claimed he used to work as Uday Hussein's double. This summer a story in the London Sunday Times reported:
A REPORT by Saddam Hussein’s secret police has emerged to cast doubt on one of the more extraordinary stories from his pre-war regime. It suggests that claims by an Iraqi man that he was a double for the dictator’s son Uday were fabricated. Latif Yahia became internationally famous after he fled to the West and gave an account of his bizarre life as the paid lookalike of Saddam’s elder son. In his book I Was Saddam’s Son, he claimed that he was tortured and then given plastic surgery so that he would resemble Uday.
Last week Dhafir Mohammed Jabir, a former close aide of Uday who is now living in Jordan, gave The Sunday Times a copy of an Iraqi police report on Yahia. The report says Yahia, 36, who lives in Manchester, was an army deserter who took to impersonating Uday as a way of attracting girls.
Jabir claims Yahia was never employed as a decoy for Uday. In fact, he is adamant that neither Uday nor Saddam ever used doubles.
And here is a response to the article from a man claiming to be Yahia.
So, I'm going to file this under the Who Knows? category.
By the way, I'm going to try not to think about the idea that pretending to be sicko creep Uday Hussein would be a good way to attract girls. **
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#volunteers Who volunteers the most? asks Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution:
The Norwegians come in a clear first, with 52% of their adult population doing volunteer work in a significant way. The UK and Sweden come in second and third, with 30% and 28% rates of volunteering. Uganda is next with 23% and then the United States with 22%. Of the cited countries Mexico comes in last with a volunteering rate of 0.1%.
As I wrote in VDARE.com last Spring:
Walking around downtown Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago, it occurred to me that Ben Franklin started more civic institutions than have all three million people of Mexican descent in Los Angeles County.
As Gregory Rodriguez wrote in the Feb. 29 Los Angeles Times:
"For example, in Los Angeles, home to more Mexicans than any other city in the U.S., there is not one ethnic Mexican hospital, college, cemetery or broad-based charity." *** ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#lowrydemo Good column by Rich Lowry in NRO: "Party Demographics: Who’s gonna vote for whom?"
The Rocky Mountain State is relatively close for the same reason — at least partly — that California has been lost to the GOP in presidential elections: ever-increasing numbers of Latino immigrants. That's why Republican stalwarts Nevada and Arizona are slowly shifting too. Outside the merits of the immigration issue — its costs, its implications for security and national cohesion — the partisan dynamic is clear: Higher levels of Latin American immigration benefit the Democrats, while digging an ever-deeper demographic hole for Republicans. Pro-immigration conservatives fool themselves into believing that being pro-immigration will make it possible for the GOP to convert large numbers of Hispanic voters to their side. This is a party strategy that could have been crafted in Oregon, since it amounts to a kind of partisan assisted suicide.
Also, here's a 1997 National Review article making the same point: "Electing a New People" by Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#gideonhersh Gideon takes a crack at Seymour Hersh's Question: "How did eight or nine neoconservatives who believed that a war in Iraq was the answer to international terrorism get their way?:"
Now, to answer Steve's question ("how did they [the neocons] do it?")... No, the question is not how did we get on that bus but why we pulled out the steering and the brakes and threw away the road map. That's the mystery to me: not how the neocons got Iraq at the top of the foreign policy agenda (that's just inertia from pre 9-11 days speeded up by 9-11-induced urgency) nor why they thought toppling Saddam would be a good thing for America and its allies, most notably Israel, but why and how the decisionmaking process got so broken that contrary argument and evidence couldn't break through? *That's* what's bizarre. And *that's* what Bush hasn't done anything demonstrable to correct. And *that's* the biggest argument against his reelection. Which is why I think Kerry should be making just that argument. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#sicksense War Nerd: "Beslan: The Sick Sense:"
And [the Chechen terrorists] made sure there were lots of Ingush (the Muslims next to Chechnya) fighters helping them. Those stories about Arab terrorists helping the Chechens turned out to be fake, just propaganda to get Bush on Putin's side -- and to keep the local Russian population from thinking about the reality of their war in Chechnya. But there were lots of Ingush -- and the Ossetians (the Christians of Beslan) are already talking about making the Ingush pay for what happened at Beslan. The Ossetians already fought an intra-border war with the Ingush in 1992, leaving over 600 dead before it was snuffed out. Already there are reports of Ossetians gathering for a big anti-Ingush pogrom in the Prigornii region about a fifteen minute drive from Beslan, where there are Ingush-populated villages within Ossetian territory.
I wondered about this Arab terrorist allegation. It sounded highly convenient. Has this been confirmed that there weren't any Arabs at Beslan?
Somebody ought to make up a list of all the things we've been told since 9/11 that have never been confirmed.
For example, during our 18 months in Iraq, have we ever found a single person who was employed as a double for Saddam Hussein? I definitely wanted to believe that Saddam had a host of doubles -- Robert A. Heinlein wrote the idea of politicians who employ actors as stand-ins into several of his books, most notably Double Star. But was it true?
UPDATE: The stories seem to go back to a book entitled "I Was Saddam's Son" by Latif Yahia who claimed he used to work as Uday Hussein's double. This summer a story in the London Sunday Times reported:
REPORT by Saddam Hussein’s secret police has emerged to cast doubt on one of the more extraordinary stories from his pre-war regime. It suggests that claims by an Iraqi man that he was a double for the dictator’s son Uday were fabricated. Latif Yahia became internationally famous after he fled to the West and gave an account of his bizarre life as the paid lookalike of Saddam’s elder son. In his book I Was Saddam’s Son, he claimed that he was tortured and then given plastic surgery so that he would resemble Uday. Last week Dhafir Mohammed Jabir, a former close aide of Uday who is now living in Jordan, gave The Sunday Times a copy of an Iraqi police report on Yahia. The report says Yahia, 36, who lives in Manchester, was an army deserter who took to impersonating Uday as a way of attracting girls. Jabir claims Yahia was never employed as a decoy for Uday. In fact, he is adamant that neither Uday nor Saddam ever used doubles.
***
George Will on Neocons:
"...neoconservatives alarm almost everyone who isn't one—and especially dismay real conservatives."
Will also says in this week's Newsweek:
... reasonable people can be simultaneously to the right of President Bush and to the left of John Kerry.
To the right of Bush: More forces may be needed—and more forceful employment of them. In the truncated conquest of Fallujah, U.S. commanders ignored Napoleon's axiom: "If you start to take Vienna—take Vienna." ...
To the left of Kerry: Recently he said that even if he had known then what we know now, he would have voted to authorize the war. That is, even knowing that Saddam Hussein was not yet nearly the danger that intelligence guesses said he was, and even experiencing the occupation's rapidly multiplying horrors, Kerry says: Make me president and I will more deftly implement essentially the same policy.
Who believes there are now fewer terrorists in the world than there were three years ago? The administration should be judged as it wants to be judged, by its performance regarding the issue it says should decide the election—national security. However, the opposition party is presenting an appallingly flaccid opposition. Teddy Roosevelt's description of William Howard Taft fits Kerry: "feebly well-meaning."
He needs to resuscitate his campaign by making himself an interesting alternative to Bush. However, he seems incapable of mounting what the nation needs—a root-and-branch critique of the stunningly anticonservative idea animating the administration's policy. The idea, a tenet of neoconservatism, is that all nations are more or less ready for democracy. So nation-building should be a piece of cake—never mind the winding, arduous, uphill hike the West took from Runnymede and Magna Charta in 1215 to Philadelphia in 1787. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#bigsmear The Big Smear: Meanwhile, the neocons are hitting back with their ultimate weapon: The Anti-Semitism Smear:
The Wall Street Journal's OpinionJournal.com runs a particularly hate-filled essay called "Blame It on Neo: Don't call me a 'neocon' unless you are a friend" by someone named Julia Gorin, who "performs with RightStuffComedy.com."
Ms. Gorin must be trying to shatter the stereotype that Jewish comics are funny. Granted, her diatribe attempting to libel as an "anti-Semite" everyone who disagrees with her on Iraq, is hysterical, but not in the sense of being amusing:
When a member of the enlightened classes, or Pat Buchanan, makes reference to a "neocon," what he's saying is "yid." That's right, "neoconservative," particularly in its shortened form, when employed by a nonconservative (or by Buchananites) and therefore meant derogatorily, is the modern, albeit more specific, word for "kike"...
I guess that makes George Will an anti-Semite.
The problem with the anti-Semitic smear is that when any group maneuvers themselves into a position where they are above criticism, as the neocons are attempting to do, they wind up abusing their privilege.
The term "neocon" once referred to outstanding social scientists such as Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Nathan Glazer, James Q. Wilson, Andrew Greeley, Richard J. Herrnstein, and Charles Murray. How "neocon" came instead to mean a small coterie of bellicose agitators with strong ties to the Israeli Right (by no means all of them Jewish -- e.g., Larry Franklin) is one of the tragedies of modern American history. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#reporters NeoconGate: Reporters vs. Pundits -- One of the striking aspects of NeoconGate has been that reporters have been relatively brave in following the story, while the non-neocon opinion organs have largely been too terrified to say "Boo" about it.
Slate finally got around to talking about the FBI investigation into neocons collaborating with Israel -- but in a pooh-poohing essay by Lee Smith that blames it all on, you guessed it, anti-Semitism:
Regardless, while the research into the neocons' ideas about the region and their connections to Israel might have begun as a partisan exercise in aggressive political journalism and speculative intellectual history, it has now come to resemble an old narrative in Western culture that engenders rumors of a "cabal," a secret government within the government, run by people whose loyalty to the state that harbors them is dubious. The word "Jew" isn't used, but "Likud" is tossed around with an alarming facility.
For example, in a recent interview with a Turkish news source, former Pentagon desk officer Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski elaborated on some of the opinions she's been articulating in both her own writing and in other interviews, including one with a Lyndon LaRouche publication.
Omigod, she once gave an interview to a LaRouche publication?!? We must never ever listen to anything the Lt. Col. ever says again! (Except that Richard Perle, as previously reported in Slate, invited a high-ranking former LaRouchie to give a Powerpoint presentation to the Defense Policy Board that included the alarming bullet points: "Iraq is the tactical pivot / Saudi Arabia the strategic pivot / Egypt the prize." So, I guess we shouldn't listen to Perle ever again -- which looted Hollinger stockholders, for one, would say was a good idea.)
Smith goes on smearing critics of the neocons:
"I think for [sic] many of these guys truly believe that what is good for Likud is good for America," she said. "This is wrong factually, and wrong philosophically, and is probably very close to being treason." On his Weblog, University of Michigan professor Juan Cole wrote, "I believe that Doug Feith, for instance, has dual loyalties to the Israeli Likud Party and to the U.S. Republican Party. … And I also think that if he has to choose, he will put the interests of the Likud above the interests of the Republican Party. … I frankly don't trust him to put America first."
Do Kwiatkowski and Cole have any factual evidence to draw on besides their own convictions and prejudices? Of course not.
Of course they do. The evidence about Feith is voluminous. I'll post some of it after this item. Smith then drops this dazzling logical gem:
Their charges might not seem particularly sensationalist if they appeared exclusively on blogs, but mainstream press outfits like UPI, Knight Ridder, and Newsweek, among others, have used Kwiatkowski as a source for stories about the neocons; others, like PBS's NewsHour With Jim Lehrer, NPR, and the Washington Post have called on Cole to discuss his views on Iraq. (His opinions have also been cited in several Slate stories.) It's unclear whether these media outlets recognize what kind of larger worldview their experts' opinions issue from, but media consumers deserve to know that some of the talking heads they're hearing are advancing conspiracy theories and accusing U.S. government officials of dual loyalty verging on treason.
Yes, indeed, media consumers do deserve to know the opinion of various experts from across the political spectrum.
Let me include with a quote (via The Ambler) from that notorious anti-Semite Seymour M. Hersh:
"There is so much about this presidency that we don’t know, and may never learn. Some of the most important questions are not even being asked. How did they do it? How did eight or nine neoconservatives who believed that a war in Iraq was the answer to international terrorism get their way? How did they redirect the government and rearrange long-standing American priorities and policies with so much ease? How did they overcome the bureaucracy, intimidate the press, mislead the Congress, and dominate the military? Is our democracy that fragile?"
As I've said before, it required a "perfect storm" of circumstances to turn the War on Terror into the War in Error:
Nonetheless, the Iraq invasion would never have happened without two other elements: Ahmed Chalabi and the small number of neocon Idea Men who relentlessly pushed Chalabi and his lies. How did they do it? ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#feiths Feiths, father and son: Slate author Lee Smith grandly dismissed as anti-Semitic conspiracy theorizing all suspicions that the Pentagon's #3 man Douglas Feith has any loyalties to Israel.
If true, Smith's claim that there is no evidence that Feith is deeply devoted to Israel would come as a shocking betrayal to the Likudist Zionist Organization of America. The announcement for the 1997 annual dinner given by the ZOA read:
This year's honorees will be Dalck Feith and Douglas J. Feith, the noted Jewish philanthropists and pro-Israel activists. [Dalck is Douglas' father.]
Dalck Feith will receive the ZOA's special Centennial Award at the dinner, for his lifetime of service to Israel and the Jewish people. His son Douglas J. Feith, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, will receive the prestigious Louis D. Brandeis Award at the dinner.
... In Poland in the 1930s, Dalck Feith was active in Betar, the Zionist youth movement founded by Ze'ev Jabotinsky [the progenitor of Likud]. He later joined the Zionist underground, fought in World War II with the U.S. Merchant Marine, and went on to become a distinguished business leader and philanthropist in Philadelphia. He has served as General Chairman of the Federation Allied Jewish Appeal of Philadelphia, and was a member of the United States Holocaust Memorial Council. He has been honored for his good works by numerous prominent institutions and organizations, including Brandeis University, Hebrew University, and Israel Bonds...
Douglas J. Feith, a graduate of Harvard College and the Georgetown University Law Center, is a founding member of the Washington, D.C. law firm of Feith & Zell... A prolific author, Mr. Feith's essays about Israel and other subjects have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New Republic, Commentary and elsewhere. A scholarly essay of his on Winston Churchill, Zionism, and Palestine (1904-1922) has just been published ... Mr. Feith is a director of the Center for Security Policy. He serves as an officer of the Charles E. Smith Jewish Day School, and a director of the Foundation for Jewish Studies. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Here's an excerpt from an article by Stephen Green that the FBI has found very useful in their investigations into NeoconGate:
Even more revealing perhaps, had the [Bush] transition team known of it, was Feith's view of "technology cooperation," as expressed in a 1992 Commentary article: "It is in the interest of U.S. and Israel to remove needless impediments to technological cooperation between them. Technologies in the hands of responsible, friendly countries facing military threats, countries like Israel, serve to deter aggression, enhance regional stability and promote peace thereby."
What Douglas Feith had neglected to say, in this last article, was that he thought that individuals could decide on their own whether the sharing of classified information was "technical cooperation," an unauthorized disclosure, or a violation of U.S. Code 794c, the "Espionage Act."
Ten years prior to writing the Commentary piece, Feith had made such a decision on his own. At the time, March of 1972, Feith was a Middle East analyst in the Near East and South Asian Affairs section of the National Security Council. Two months before, in January, Judge William Clark had replaced Richard Allen as National Security Advisor, with the intention to clean house. A total of nine NSC staff members were fired, including Feith, who'd only been with the NSC for a year. But Feith was fired because he'd been the object of an inquiry into whether he'd provided classified material to an official of the Israeli Embassy in Washington. The FBI had opened the inquiry. And Clark, who had served in U.S. Army counterintelligence in the 1950's, took such matters very seriously.....more seriously, apparently, than had Richard Allen.
Feith did not remain unemployed for long, however. Richard Perle, who was in 1982 serving in the Pentagon as Assistant secretary for International Security Policy, hired him on the spot as his "Special Counsel," and then as his Deputy. Feith worked at ISP until 1986, when he left government service to form a small but influential law firm, then based in Israel.
In fact, Feith's former law partner L. Marc Zell, who still advertises his close relationship with Feith, and who set up a law office in Baghdad with Ahmed Chalabi's nephew, told Salon why the neocons had backed the notorious exile-conman:
"He said he would end Iraq's boycott of trade with Israel, and would allow Israeli companies to do business there. He said [the new Iraqi government] would agree to rebuild the pipeline from Mosul [in the northern Iraqi oil fields] to Haifa [the Israeli port, and the location of a major refinery]." ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#turkeytim Turkey: It ain't broke, so don't fix it by putting it in the European Union. A friend writes:
Turkey is something like [Baathist] Iraq in that a powerful secular minority keeps the country secular although a majority of the population wants and Islamic revolution.
In Turkey the Army does that, and it is more or less uncorrupted: Kemal managed to convince his successors to guard the Constitution but not try to run the country. Periodically the Army comes out of barracks, hangs the government -- and goes back to barracks again while the country has more elections. This form of government was known to the ancients as timocracy, but it was a theoretical form not one observed in action. So far as I know, the timocracy in Turkey is unique in history although perhaps there were periods when the Mamelukes fit the model.
To hope for something like Turkey in Iraq is, I suppose, reasonable, but it should be seen as an improbable outcome. ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#derb-bellcurve 10th Anniversary of The Bell Curve is coming up: The Derb aptly says:
Prompted by a friend's remark, I just got through re-reading Robert Kaplan's splendid doom'n'gloom piece from back in 1994 ["The Coming Anarchy" in The Atlantic, which is always Ground Zero of genteel forebodings.] It has held up surprisingly well after ten years, and is full of quotables, e.g.: "Whereas the distant future will probably see the emergence of a racially hybrid, globalized man, the coming decades will see us more aware of our differences than of our similarities. To the average person, political values will mean less, personal security more. The belief that we are all equal is liable to be replaced by the overriding obsession of the ancient Greek travelers: Why the differences between peoples?" I am coming to think that in the early and mid-1990s, a veil was briefly lifted, to give us some glimpses of the truth about humanity and our collective future. When we saw what was behind the veil, though, we dropped it rather fast, and have spent the past ten years in a dream of wishful thinking.
I note in this context that next month marks the 10th anniversary of the publication of Herrnstein & Murray's book THE BELL CURVE. Looking back over these ten years, the striking thing about that book is how little practical consequence it had. There was really no follow-up in the world of real politics, any more than there was to the insights offered by Kaplan and Samuel Huntington. The No Child Left Behind Act, for instance, was written as though THE BELL CURVE had never been published; just as the Iraq war and the nation-building effort that followed took no account of Kaplan, Fukuyama, or Huntington. "Humankind cannot stand very much reality." Perhaps God in his wisdom permits us to know more than we can bear to know.
Dark thoughts; I am sorry, I shall try to find something more cheerful to post. In the meantime, if you have time (the piece is rather long), try reading or re-reading Kaplan's essay.
For almost three decades, the term "neoconservatism" stood for, more than anything else, frank quantitative analyses of ethnic and racial issues. How did it come to stand instead for anti-empirical dogmatism about the equal capabilities of all peoples for democracy, as exemplified in the President's almost Dan Rather-like speech to the UN?
The Bell Curve was, in many ways, the climax of the original school of neoconservatism: intensely quantitative, extremely brave, yet deeply moderate and judicious. Remarkably, Richard J. Herrnstein's and Charles Murray's years of research were supported by many of the same institutions, such as the American Enterprise Institute, that funded the agitation for the Iraq Attaq.
What happened? ***
http://www.iSteve.com/sep04.htm#hispaniciq Best estimate yet of white-Hispanic IQ gap: I've been doing a lot of research on this subject lately because, frankly, it's shameful and alarming that America's elites are carrying out a vast social experiment by emasculating enforcement of the laws against illegal immigration, yet almost nobody is discussing the facts about what kind of new version of America they are creating. Everyone across the political spectrum admits that the white-black test score gap is a major social problem, but nobody is thinking about the white-Hispanic test score gap. Fortunately, the facts are available, but they take a lot of digging to uncover.
Here's the best estimate I've yet seen: A 2001 meta-analysis of 39 studies covering a total 5,696,519 individuals in America (aged 14 and above) came up with an overall difference of 0.72 standard deviations in g (the "general factor" in cogniti |