Notes

Slide Show

Outline

1	The Hispanic Vote in Perspective: Hysteria v. History Steve Sailer VDARE.com The American Conservative iSteve.blogspot.com
2	Is the Hispanic vote an electoral tsunami?
3	Latin politics can be exciting …
4	The boring truth The Hispanic vote is small
5	The boring truth The Hispanic vote is small It’s growing more slowly than the Hispanic population
6	The boring truth The Hispanic vote is small It’s growing more slowly than the Hispanic population It’s not a “swing vote” that’s up for grabs
7	The boring truth The Hispanic vote is not large It’s not growing as fast as the Hispanic population It’s not a swing vote Hispanic voters are not up in arms about amnesty for illegal immigrants
8	The boring truth The Hispanic vote is small It’s growing more slowly than the Hispanic population It’s not a swing vote It’s not excited about immigration However, immigration does have a little-understood indirect impact on white voters
9	Peter Brimelow’s 1997 Insight
10	Karl Rove’s Response
11	Where have we heard logic this before?
12	Where have we heard logic this before?
13	The Political Reality There’s still time to cut back on immigration
14	Size of Hispanic Vote
15	Mexican vote even smaller
16	Demographic v. Electoral Impact
17	Why didn’t 2006 marches lead to more votes?
18	Because illegal immigrants can’t vote Mexican-American citizens are sensibly ambivalent on illegal immigration 47% voted for anti-illegal immigration Proposition 200 in Arizona in 2004.
19	Not Swing, but Flow Voters
20	Even Hispanic Republicans are Tax & Spend Democrats
21	Even Hispanic Republicans are Tax & Spend Democrats "Registered Latinos who identify as Republicans take a much more liberal stand on taxes and the size of government than their white counterparts. … About half (52%) of registered Latinos who identified themselves as Republicans said they would rather pay higher taxes to support a larger government, while only 17% of white Republicans stated that view." -- Pew Poll 2002
22	Immigration creates leftist elite
23	Immigration’s Indirect Impact “Affordable Family Formation” Affordable California voted GOP 9 of 10 times from 1952-1988 Expensive California voted GOP 0 of 4 times from 1992-2004
24	“Affordable Family Formation”
25	The Four Gaps that explain red states and blue states Dirt Gap Mortgage Gap Marriage Gap Baby Gap
26	1. The Dirt Gap
27	2. The Mortgage Gap
28	3. The Marriage Gap
29	4. The Baby Gap
30	Immigration Hurts Affordable Family Formation All this suggests the GOP should search out new pro-marriage and pro-baby strategies for growing more Republican voters. For example: Get control of the borders. Illegal immigration drives land prices up, wages down, and public school quality down. Illegal immigration means that more potential Republican voters can't afford to get married and start families.
31	Steve Sailer VDARE.com The American Conservative iSteve.blogspot.com